Despite the fact that volatility picked up early last week on a rally above $615, since the breakout the market has settle back into its old, stagnant ways. We think it is a good sign for the longer term health of the market that price has been able to stay above near term support, however the technical outlook remains unfavorable for now. Bitcoiners got more good news concerning scaling this weekend as the SegWit code has now been fully tested and is ready to deploy in the next Core update (set for mid-November). While we may not see the benefits from it until later this year or early next, this is nonetheless good news on the fundamental side of things. Moving on to the technicals, things get a bit more complicated considering there are many near term bearish indications that are currently putting a ceiling on price, and some bullish ones that are helping to keep the market elevated above the $630 “resistance turned support” level. As long as the market remains stuck between $630 – $640, there won’t be a ton of trading opportunities due to poor risk/reward profiles on both the long and the short side, however, a move out of this range will tell us where the market wants to head over the course of this week. We can see on the updated daily chart below that price is now well above the broken symmetrical triangle, as well as all relevant near term and longer term moving averages. The 9/18 EMA cross is still in stacking mode to the upside, and the 200-day SMA is trying to flatten out and reverse higher around the $600 level. This area is also where a secondary volume profile point of control (PoC) sits, as well as a notch in […]
